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In contrast, our house US view has the upper bound for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by the year-end. We are assuming a further 75bp by year-end taking rates to 3.1%. At this point, rates will probably be approximately neutral with respect to inflation and the economy, so the RBA should be able to slow the pace of further increases. The wage price data will most likely also provide an excuse for a further 50bp hike in September, taking rates to 2.35% by the end of 3Q22. With the cash rate target now 0.85%, and likely to get to 1.35% at this coming meeting, where do we expect rates to finish the year? We are assuming that the inflation data for 2Q rise, but don't necessarily require a larger 75bp hike response. The other factor to consider is that with the latest inflation rate at 5.2%, and probably higher when we get the 2Q figure on 27 July, at 0.85% the RBA cash rate target is well off where it needs to be to even remove stimulus from the economy, and even further away from actually starting to restrict growth and bring inflation down. So the 6.7% print in the latest release from this institution should have banished any thoughts of a lesser hike or even no hike at all. Central banks get very agitated by evidence that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. What we have had though is some inflation expectations data from the Melbourne Institute. We have had some slightly soft business and consumer sentiment surveys, a decent labour market report (no wages data though), and importantly no inflation data, as this is of course released only quarterly. The RBA has told us that their decisions are going to be data-dependent, but there has been very little data released since the last RBA meeting on 7 June.

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